Raiffeisenbank: Inflation will accelerate

(ČIA) The year 2022 will bring a return to pre-coronavirus levels not only of consumption but also of industrial and export performance. Raiffeisenbank chief economist Helena Horská further predicts that growth will accelerate in 2H 2022 and exceed the dynamics of 2021. Inflation will peak at the beginning of the year at up to 8 % and will start to slow down in the spring. Therefore, she expects a tightening of monetary policy. The base interest rate can reach up to 4.5 %. Unemployment will fall and wage growth will remain high. The widening of the interest rate differential and the gradual recovery of exports will benefit the exchange rate of the Czech koruna. Thanks to the ČNB’s increase in interest rates, it strengthened to CZK 24.85/euro at the end of 2021 (by 5 % y/y). The Polish zloty and the Hungarian forint lagged behind the gains of the Czech koruna.



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